| Services |
|
|
|
|
 |
|
| News |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Channels |
| Home & Family |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Leisure |
|
|
|
|
| Technology |
|
|
|
|
|
| Business |
|
|
|
|
| Science |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Site Search  |
|
|
|
|
| Free email |
|
|
|
|
 |
Professors computer predicts crowd behavior |
| TheAllINeed.com |
(NC&T/ASU) "Crowds are vital to the lifeblood of our cities, yet crowd behavior is veiled to traditional academic inquiry," says Paul Torrens, an assistant professor in the School of Geographical Sciences who joined the faculty of ASU's College of Liberal Arts and Sciences in 2005.
It is impractical, Torrens says, "to establish live experiments with hundreds or thousands of people along busy streetscapes, to reproduce mob behavior during riots for the purposes of academic experimentation, or to expect to replicate the life-and-death behavior under emergency situations in a fabricated fashion.
"You couldn't stage a realistic rehearsal of an evacuation, because people are not going to panic appropriately. You could never bulldoze large sections of the city to see how it affects pedestrian flow."
Instead, Torrens is developing a realistic computer model that can be used to assist city planners, shopping center developers, public safety and health officials, and researchers in exploring the dynamics of individual pedestrian and crowd behavior in dense urban settings.
 | | Paul Torrens. (Photo: ASU) |
"The goal of this project is to develop a reusable and behaviorally founded computer model of pedestrian movement and crowd behavior amid dense urban environments, to serve as a test-bed for experimentation," Torrens says. "The idea is to use the model to test hypotheses, real-world plans and strategies that are not very easy, or are impossible to test in practice."
The current ways of measuring behavior that use statistical analysis or physics models have not proven to have the veracity that this model could potentially have, he says.
The new modeling approach will incorporate individual behavior and independent characteristics – age, sex, size, health and body language – while also taking into account crowd-level features such as panic, as well as characteristics of the environment, such as safety levels. The simulations will model motion and emotion, Torrens says.
The model "will serve as an experimental, but wholly realistic, environment for exploring 'what-if' and unforeseen scenarios of relevance to cities and their citizens," Torrens says.
For example, the project will develop simulations to explore avenues of sustainability in downtown settings, such as how cities can promote walking as an alternative to driving, and how pedestrian flow can be better integrated with transit-oriented development.
Another set of scenarios will explore a range of health issues. For example: How might a pathogen be transmitted through mobile pedestrians over a short time period?
Urban and economic planners will be able to use scenarios to explore questions involving the positioning of anchor stores along main shopping streets, pedestrian flow past street entertainers and placement of tourist information sites.
In the areas of public safety and homeland security, the model can be used to examine questions asking how pedestrian interactions with cars can be minimized; what the early signs of antisocial behavior in large crowds are and how polarizing influences can be neutralized; and what strategies might be used to compel antisocial crowds into compliance without the use of force.
A prototype of the model already has been developed and used to model crowd dynamics following outbreak of a fire in a dense part of a city with only a single point of evacuation.
"When trying to evacuate, people start to run and panic," Torrens says. "Jams will occur and the evacuation doesn't proceed as efficiently as it might otherwise."
The prototype model records every state of everything in the model 60 times a second. Once that information is in the system, the model exports it into a geographic information system where the data can be analyzed mathematically.
From this information, Torrens says, "we are able to study collective human dynamics in incredible detail and explore how pedestrian crowds form under a range of conditions, then provide information on how crowds might be better managed."
Torrens' research will be aided by a National Science Foundation CAREER Award in the amount of $400,000 over five years. The award is the most prestigious award that the NSF grants to junior faculty.
|
| About the Author |
©2006 All rights reserved
|
|
|
| Quotes | Heres tae the fool on the hill and his pals that are down in the valley.- Wolfstone, Glass and the Can
He thought the formula for water was H-I-J-K-L-M-N-O (H-to-O).
He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lampposts — for support rather than illumination. — Andrew Lang.
|
| Writers | | If you are a writer and want to see your article published at Theallineed.com, just click here to submit. |
|
Nepal's human rights commission has made great strides, says UN official
Implementing New Technology