Predictive models warn that the US will exceed 70,000 by August. Especially if some states take early opening measures. Just a week ago the forecast was 60,000 deaths. But several territories, including Texas and Georgia, urged by the economic situation, and encouraged by the fact that the pandemic has struck with relative virulence, have begun to de-escalate.
The contrast is great with New York, where the reopening will not begin until May 15, possibly later in the case of the city. With regard to the disparity in the outcomes of the crisis, it is worth remembering that the coronavirus has penetrated the country in a disparate manner. In New York State the cases detected exceed 292,000, in Alaska there have only been 345 confirmed positive cases, 607 in Hawaii, 24,225 in Georgia, 25,297 in Texas and 38,210 in Michigan.
According to data from a seroprevalence study of 7,500 asymptomatic people in New York, 14% of the volunteers had antibodies; that is, they had suffered from the disease and had probably developed some kind of immunity. The percentage soars to 25% in the case of New York City, where up to one in four inhabitants would have passed the coronavirus.
These are fabulous numbers, severely lowering the death rate, and would put the state as a whole, 19 million people, in an extremely advantageous position to begin the de-escalation. On the contrary, where the percentage of those infected has been as low as in Alaska or Hawaii, the coronavirus would really be about to burst. There is no reason, of course, to expect a dramatic increase in the number of tests and a start on different solutions related to the handling of Big Data.