Just a week ago, the University of Washington gave as a probability the figure of 70,000 deaths from coronavirus in the United States in August. Now it speaks of 134,000. And in its worst case scenario the deaths could reach, on August 3rd, over 242,000. And it is better not to speculate with those that could arrive not only during the summer, which in theory was going to be a much more propitious season, but with the more than predictable avalanche that would arrive with a second epidemic wave in the autumn or winter, which to top it all would coincide with the recurrence of the flu.

These figures are far above even the rising forecasts of Donald Trump himself, who this Monday acknowledged that deaths could exceed 80,000 or 90,000. The researchers, who signed one of the mathematical models that the White House follows in its forecasts, take into account the recent de-escalation measures, as they “formally incorporate the effect of changes in mobility and social distancing policies in the transmission dynamics”.


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